In recent years, armed conflicts have frequently made global headlines, but media coverage has largely focused on just a few highly publicised wars. These conflicts represent only the tip of the iceberg: more than 50 countries are currently suffering from shocking levels of armed violence, many of which receive little to no public attention. These include the ongoing violence in Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, the Central African Republic and Yemen.

Many of these “forgotten wars” occur in countries with high poverty, significant interethnic inequalities and fragile states. Often, they are not sites of great power rivalry – one of the reasons they are largely “forgotten” by both the media and policymakers worldwide. Academia has not overlooked them, however: hundreds of recent studies examine policies that can make a real difference in such conflicts. As discussed in my new book, The Peace Formula: Voice, Work and Warranties, three factors have been found to matter most for sustainable peace.
 

Political representation, economic opportunity and security guarantees

First, a society must guarantee civil liberties and political representation for all regardless of ethnicity, gender, religion or sexual orientation. Excluded or discriminated-against groups are far more likely to form insurgent movements to challenge the state, whereas inclusive, power-sharing institutions are strongly associated with long-term peace and stability.

Second, the presence of a productive economy and a well-educated, healthy population with the means to earn a decent living are key. When opportunities are scarce and large segments of society are impoverished and desperate, they become easier prey for warlords or authoritarian leaders seeking to recruit fighters. Consequently, policies that strengthen education, healthcare and labour market access have a significant impact in promoting peace.

Third, security guarantees and robust state capacity are essential for implementing effective public policies and reducing the risk of coups or organised crime taking advantage of power vacuums. When citizens feel secure, state legitimacy is strengthened, making political and economic progress possible.
 

The war in Sudan

But even if one recognises these factors, the question remains: how can the international community enact positive change? Imposing regime change from outside typically backfires. However, when a reform window opens within a country and a well-intentioned government works toward positive change, it creates an opportunity for the international community to help. Substantial financial investment following the Marshall Plan model, along with support for emerging state capacities, can have a significant impact. UN peacekeeping forces have been shown to greatly enhance security, particularly for civilians.

These elements can make a crucial difference on the ground. Take the ongoing war in Sudan: after Omar al-Bashir’s autocratic regime ended in 2019, a window of opportunity for positive change briefly opened, leading to the initiation of a series of reforms under new prime minister Abdallah Hamdok. These included the obtainment of IMF financing, macroeconomic reforms and the removal of fuel subsidies. While the reforms aimed for fiscal stabilisation, they did not bring immediate relief to the economic hardship suffered by wide parts of the population, making it challenging to maintain lasting large-scale support for the government and its reforms. Also, the government never achieved full control over security and remained at the mercy of the military.

This period of transition to civilian rule was cut short in the fall of 2021, when a series of coups ushered in a new era of tension and violence. The situation deteriorated further in April 2023, when full-scale war broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, the army’s former paramilitary allies. This power struggle has reportedly killed tens of thousands of people, and there are now more than 14 million displaced people in Sudan or across its borders. The war continues with devastating intensity, and in recent days, reports have emerged of mass killings and sexual violence in villages in Al Jazirah state in eastern Sudan.
 

Protecting members of all ethnic groups

Stopping the fighting and finding a political solution is the top priority. Once an armistice is reached, a long-term roadmap for sustainable peace will be essential to ensure that the current humanitarian catastrophe never happens again. Ensuring a democratic voice for everyone is vital in any country, but it is especially critical in the context of Sudan, which has severe ethnic divisions and a history of ethnically motivated violence, with, among others, the Masalit people and other non-Arab communities in the Darfur region repeatedly targeted. The state has a duty to protect the lives and rights of all its inhabitants, and it is crucial to put everything possible in place to prevent ethnic cleansing.

An economy that generates sufficient jobs is important everywhere, but particularly in Sudan, where poverty remains high and not everyone benefits equally from natural resource windfalls. While the extraction of fossil fuels poses a significant risk of conflict and rent-seeking – both generally and in oil-rich Sudan – a robust economy that extends beyond the sector is crucial, as it offers important employment opportunities without the same negative side effects as fossil fuel extraction.

Once a future civilian government is established, the international community can provide large-scale financial help. An International Growth Centre report highlights great opportunities for domestically producing a wide range of imported goods, including food and textiles, as well as boosting exports.

In terms of exports, Sudan’s geographical position close to Egypt, Ethiopia and the Gulf States is a major asset. The diversification of exports, such as a range of agricultural commodities and livestock, holds significant potential, and value-added activities could be stepped up. Sudan is the world’s largest producer of gum arabic but only gets a dismal share of the value chain. With more processing activities, a bigger share of this market could be secured.

There must also be strong security guarantees that enable a civilian government to implement reforms and build state capacity without the threat of military coups. Not only could UN peacekeepers protect a civilian government from military takeovers, but they would also help safeguard all civilians, regardless of their ethnicity. Of course, a key challenge for the UN is to obtain large enough contingents of peacekeeping troops from member states. This highlights the paramount importance of international solidarity.
 

Foundations for peace

If there is a roadmap to pacifying forgotten wars, why hasn’t it been followed more often? One issue is that many politicians prioritise short-term objectives. Striking an unsustainable deal with a despot or winning the favour of a significant yet unsavoury regime may seem appealing to leaders, especially before an election campaign. It has been argued that al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for decades, had only been able to cling to power due to foreign support.

In contrast, investing substantial resources to lay the groundwork for long-term peace in a country far from the spotlight may be seen as less politically advantageous. The full benefits of, for example, building schools or improving the health system accrue only after some time. While some leaders may genuinely care about doing good, many are more focused on doing well. To change this dynamic, scrutiny from local and global civil society, as well as public opinion, is essential to realign incentives for our leaders, shifting their focus from short-term gains to sustainable foundations for peace. Independent, high-quality media and engaged citizens can serve as catalysts for such positive change.

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This article was published on 20 November 2024 in The Conversation France. Find the original version here. 
Its author, Dominic Rohner, is Professor of International Economics, André Hoffmann Chair in Political Economics and Governance, and Co-Director of the Hoffmann Centre for Global Sustainability at the Geneva Graduate Institute. In a recent book, The Peace Formula: Voice, Work and Warranties, Not Violence (Cambridge University Press), Professor Rohner proposes a set of evidence-based policies to curb armed conflict and build sustainable peace. He gave us an interview about the “peace formula” that you can read here.

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