publication

Interest rates in Switzerland, 1852-2020

Authors:
Cédric TILLE
Daniel KAUFMANN
Rebecca STUART
Niko HAUZENBERGER
Florian HUBER
2021

The large structural decrease in real interest rates presents challenges for policy makers, for instance hindering the ability of central banks to lower policy rates during recessions. We put this decrease in historical perspective for Switzerland by constructing quarterly data going back to 1852 using novel archival sources and statistical methods. We extract long-term trends for interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate growth, and split the nominal interest rate trend into various components. Using an econometric analysis, we relate the real interest rate to monetary regimes, changes in the pension system, international developments, as well as demographic changes.