The Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS), signed by New Zealand, Switzerland, Costa Rica, and Iceland, exemplifies well experimental trade policy. It seeks to eliminate tariffs on environmentally beneficial products and services, phase out subsidies that harm ecosystems, and promote sustainable trade practices in line with the circular economy paradigm. The ACCTS is the first initiative of its kind globally: it introduces several innovative measures, including the definitions of greenwashing, harmful subsidies, and environment-related products and services. Furthermore, the agreement relies on building global momentum and encouraging major economies to adopt similar measures. However, the impact of the ACCTS commitments remains uncertain unless other economies join the effort.

Protectionism and the return of mercantilism

At the other end of the political spectrum are the tariffs threatened by incoming US President Trump: Using tariffs in an attempt to reduce the domestic trade deficit and illegal immigration is highly experimental and fraught with significant economic and legal uncertainty. A return to a more mercantilistic approach to trade policy may not be entirely new—there is reliable data on the effects of mercantilistic trade policy in the 19th and early 20th centuries—but it certainly constitutes a major departure from trade policymaking in the past 80 years. The effects of a mercantilistic approach to trade policy in a highly integrated, globalised market, are largely unknown.  However, this approach will undoubtedly negatively impact the US economy as well as cooperative initiatives undertaken by other countries.

In parallel, other experimental policies like the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are also at risk. CBAM, designed to impose costs on carbon-intensive imports to prevent leakage and support EU climate goals, has faced strong backlash from developing countries that view it as a protectionist measure. Under Trump’s leadership, the US is likely to resist such mechanisms too, potentially escalating trade disputes and creating further uncertainty for policies aimed at balancing trade with climate action.

Even provisions within the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are not immune to the shifting political landscape. USMCA’s inclusion of mechanisms to uphold labour rights, such as rapid-response panels, represents a progressive evolution in trade agreements. However, the Trump administration could deprioritise the enforcement of such provisions, undermining their credibility and weakening their role as a template for future agreements.

The role of research in a time of experimentation

In this unpredictable context, robust research is critical to evaluate the implications of experimental trade policies. Systematic research can provide insights into their actual outcomes, identify potential shortcomings, and inform strategies for improvement. For instance, research into ACCTS could reveal whether eliminating tariffs on green technologies translates into tangible environmental benefits or merely exacerbates inequalities between developed and developing economies. Similarly, studies on CBAM assess its efficiency in reducing global emissions while minimising adverse effects on less affluent nations. Lastly, studies on the use of tariffs to achieve trade-related objectives shed light on the effectiveness and broader implications of such policies.

Public trust in global trade depends on policies that deliver clear and measurable benefits—not just for economic growth and welfare but also for environmental sustainability and social equity. Without this trust, the already fragile global trading system risks further fragmentation. Through rigorous research and evidence-based recommendations, policymakers can craft trade frameworks that balance national priorities with the pressing need for international cooperation, ensuring that trade remains a force for progress in a rapidly changing world. Given the urgency of addressing the common concerns of humankind, access to data and analysis is essential. This makes the findings from our research project not per se political but of utmost political relevance.