On 7 February, Professor Jussi Hanhimäki and Professor Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou presented on History and Statecraft at King's College London. In an interview following this presentation, Professor Hanhimäki provides insight on the link between policy-making and international history and its relevance to international historians.

Why is it important to link policy-making with international history?

For several reasons: first, policymakers are products of their own personal, national, local, regional etc. histories and these histories (or memories) are bound to affect the way in which they think and, perhaps more importantly, act. For example, a built-in prejudice or an ingrained (maybe subconscious) preference can affect anyone’s rational decision-making process. In essence, historically informed decision-making alerts one to question not only one’s own limited understanding of any given situation but to better understand those of others.

Second, international history teaches us a lot about the folly of false analogies. Most policy decisions are, after all, based upon the understanding that the situation one faces is either ‘just like’ (or similar to) something in the past – something that we want to either prevent from happening again (a disastrous war/an economic crisis) or replicate (‘Make America Great Again’). History is a powerful tool but often oversimplified to justify decisions already made and used as ‘proof’.

Third, in the end there is no other data at hand than historical data. All predictions – demographic, political, economic – are based on some projection of the past into the present and the future. So it seems crucial that we get as much of that data right and not let fake news or wishful thinking rule the day.

What has been missing from this relationship? What has been done already?

History is, to a large extent, neglected by policymakers. On the one hand, politicians, diplomats and young leaders are not adequately trained to understand history. On the other, historians are isolated from policymakers, and academic institutions do not produce research that is accessible and readily available for policymakers and practitioners.

There have, to be sure, been various initiatives aimed at inserting some historical thinking into decision-making processes. The most notable was probably the series of case studies and short term training programs headed by professors Ernest May and Richard Neustadt at the Kennedy School of Government in the 1980s. The book they produced – aptly titled Thinking in Time – was published over three decades ago. There are also a number of other initiatives under way at the moment; yet most of these tend to be in the United States and hence have an excessive focus on finding lessons and analogies to better inform and understand US foreign policy. That kind of approach, obviously, has its limits!

It may be difficult for busy policymakers – and even more so for politicians – to accept their own inherent infallibility and limited understanding(s). But if they are to master the basic art of the possible, if they are to see the proverbial ‘windows of opportunity’ in a world of eminent complexity, history can be an essential tool. You cannot expect to change the world without understanding it first.

How can international historians build upon this area in their training?

First step is to insist that history not only matters but is essential if one is to reach any understanding of the world we are living in and the possible directions it may take. Second step is to focus on ‘thinking historically’ rather than absorbing data. It means thinking and taking into account in policy-making contexts such basic historians’ categories as contingency, change, causality and context. It may sound a lot for a busy policymaker to take in. But ignoring these “C’s” will certainly result in ill-advised decisions.

The ultimate point, therefore, is teaching humility in ways that allow the policymaker to think outside of the proverbial box. No one can master ‘all’ history and not everything that happened in the past is relevant in any given situation. But thinking historically makes one better prepared to weigh different options, more able to change course when necessary and accept failure as a possible, yet not irreversible, outcome.