The slogan (borrowed from Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential campaign) encapsulates the many – sometimes vindictive, counterproductive, or nonsensical – executive orders that President Donald Trump started issuing immediately after his inauguration on 20 January. They echo the new president’s campaign pledges. He has started exacting revenge on his domestic opponents while issuing pardons to those involved in the January 6, 2021 riots on Capitol Hill. He is pushing for deportations of illegal immigrants and strict immigration controls, while seeking to dismantle or undermine various federal agencies (such as the Department of Education, which is on the imminent hitlist).
In foreign policy, Trump’s recent acts include announcing US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreements, the World Health Organization, and the Human Rights Council. USAID, America’s development aid agency, is under siege. Trump has also announced – and postponed instituting – new tariffs against several countries, including Canada and Mexico. After meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, Trump suggested that the United States take over the Gaza strip and create a ‘Riviera of the Middle East.’
Does all this amount to a concentrated effort to move towards autocracy? Is Trump overseeing a rapid but seismic shift towards a new kind of American imperialism, punctuated by name changes (such as the Gulf of Mexico becoming the Gulf of America), hardball tariff games, and aggressive take-overs of strategic places like Panama and Greenland? It is no wonder that Trump’s statements have elicited outrage and wonder across the world.
There is growing resistance. Part of this comes from within the United States legal system. Several of Trump’s executive orders – including a freeze to federal spending and an end to birthright citizenship – have already been suspended by federal judges as unconstitutional. Indeed, because executive orders are not laws Trump has made their signing a highly publicized political show. As Trump’s term matures, it is also likely that congressional resistance to his agenda will become better organized and more vocal. While Democrats may appear shellshocked for now, they will soon organize a concerted effort to counter and obstruct the MAGA agenda at federal, state, and local levels. There will, sooner or later, be Republican rebels.
The limits of Trump’s influence will also be challenged by the rest of the world. And here lies one of the president’s key weaknesses. Despite his tough talk and bullying appearance, Trump is clearly unwilling to damage the notion that he is a superior custodian of the American economy.
In this regard, Trump’s tariff U-turns are instructive. On 1 February, Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada; the next day these were postponed. The White House explained that both of America’s neighbours had caved under pressure. Mexico would send 10,000 additional troops to the US-Mexico border to control illegal migration; Canada had offered to cooperate with the US on drug-trafficking. These were hardly major concessions. Instead, many suspect that Trump was the one who had backed down after seeing the stock markets’ negative reaction to his tariffs.
Indeed, just two weeks into the MAGA moment, Canada and Mexico may well have exposed its basic weakness. America First cannot be enacted by America alone. Picking a fight with traditional friends and allies may be popular with some of Trump’s domestic supporters but it is potentially self-defeating. As Trump threatens the European Union with tariffs and moves to push for his promise to end the war in Ukraine this obvious point will become ever clearer.
Maybe, just maybe, there is no grand strategy at all? One thing is for sure: Donald Trump is an old man in a hurry. He is pushing ahead at full speed, trying to make maximum impact as quickly as possible. With no chance for re-election, Trump has, at best, until the 2026 congressional elections – when he would be 80 – to transform America (let alone the world). By then he will become a lame duck.
That, though, is still far in the distance. In the immediate future it is likely that the soon-to-be octogenarian president will continue an unpredictable path. Whether this will have a significant long-term impact is difficult to tell. However, the odds are that by the end of his first 100 days in office, Donald Trump will have run out of steam, and America’s “new golden age” will still be on the horizon.