What are the consequences of China’s ongoing rise for the global order? Are we about to witness a hegemonic transition? If so, is it likely to be a smooth shift, like from Pax-Britannica to Pax-Americana? Or, like numerous historical examples, will it be defined by great power competition and conflict?

These questions were tackled by Ted Hopf, Professor at the National University of Singapore, during a talk entitled “The Distribution of Identity and China's Hegemonic Prospects”. The public lecture was organized by the Global Governance Centre on 28 November 2018.

To shed light on those questions, Prof. Hopf relies on an analysis of the distribution of identity across the world, which is part of the broader Making Identity Count research project. The analysis of identity is based on how national elites and masses understand their own identities, and whether or not those understandings are compatible with Western neoliberal democratic hegemony.

Based on those assessments, there seem to be obstacles to Pax Sinica. A smooth transition away from American hegemony followed by a period of peace defined by Chinese hegemony is not entirely certain.