Superstition, fertility, and modernization: evidence from Japan

Abstract: 

Since the start of its industrialization, Japan’s demographic trends have followed the typical pattern of a marked decrease in mortality followed by a decline in fertility. However, there are notable deviations from this pattern in particular years associated with superstitious beliefs. This paper examines fertility patterns between 1880 to 1980 and estimates the number of missing children due to adherence to superstition. Given significant spatial variation, the impact of economic development through medical services, education, and industrialization may mitigate the prevalence of superstitious belief across different regions in the country. I find that education attainment by women over multiple generations has mixed results depending on whether the year of birth is associated with superstition.