As part of the Vilfredo Pareto Research Seminar series, the International Economics Department at the Geneva Graduate Institute is pleased to invite you to a public talk given by Damiano Sandri.

He will present his work titled Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations, joint with Francesco Grigoli

Abstract: We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.

About the speaker

Damiano's research focuses on macro-financial linkages, monetary policy and international finance and has been published in leading academic journals and policy outlets. Damiano is a CEPR Research Fellow. Prior to joining the BIS, he was a Deputy Division Chief in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund and served as Associate Editor of the IMF Economic Review. Damiano holds a PhD in economics from Johns Hopkins University.