event
Center for Trade and Economic Integration
Tuesday
10
December
10-december-2024-Lucian-Cernat-card

The “hidden giant”: What Mode of Supply Will Matter the Most for the Future of Services Trade?

with Lucian CERNAT
, -

Room S11, Petal 3, Floor 4, Maison de la paix, Geneva

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Trade in services has been a neglected area in recent trade policy debates, with the main focus being on industrial policies. However, Lucian Cernat, in his latest trade policy brief published by ECIPE and VoxEU, highlights this as a significant "blind spot" in global trade discussions. Based on the latest WTO and OECD databases, a comprehensive analysis of the value of total services trade across all five modes of supply reveals that services are already driving the future of global trade, their total trade value surpassing that of world merchandise trade.

The dynamics of services trade are complex, with countries engaging in different services under various modes of supply. To determine which mode of supply is most crucial and essential for achieving global competitiveness, Lucian Cernat draws upon the most comprehensive datasets documenting the latest trends in global trade in services by modes of supply. His research provides new insights into the importance of different modes of supply for various countries, shedding light on the critical components of global trade in services.

 

Lucian Cernat is the Head of Global Regulatory Cooperation and International Procurement Negotiation in DG TRADE, European Commission. Between 2009 and 2020 he was the Chief Trade Economist at the European Commission. Until 2008, he held various positions at the United Nations in Geneva dealing with trade and development issues. He has authored several publications on the development impact of trade policies, WTO negotiations, EU preferential market access, regional trade agreements, competition policy, corporate governance. He launched several new trade policy concepts and initiatives, such as “mode 5 services”,  “GVCs for LDCs” and “Trade Policy 2.0”. Prior to his UN experience, he has been a Trade Diplomat with the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Lucian Cernat obtained a PhD from University of Manchester and a postgraduate diploma from Oxford University. He is also the author of Europeanization, Varieties of Capitalism and Economic Performance in Central and Eastern Europe (Palgrave Macmillan, 2006).

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