As part of the Vilfredo Pareto Research Seminar series, the International Economics Department at the Graduate Institute is pleased to invite you to the public talk given by  Stephen Broadberry FBA, Professor of Economic History at Oxford University, entitled:

Growing, Shrinking and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development (coauthored with John Wallis)

Steve Broadberry is also a Research Theme Leader at CAGE, University of Warwick and Director of the Economic History Programme at CEPR. He has also taught at the London School of Economics and the Universities of Warwick and Cardiff and held visiting positions at University of British Columbia, University of California, Berkeley, Humboldt University, Berlin, UPF Barcelona and Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo.

Abstract | Using annual data from the thirteenth century to the present, we show that improved long run economic performance has occurred primarily through a decline in the rate and frequency of shrinking, rather than through an increase in the rate of growing. Indeed, as economic performance has improved over time, the short run rate of growing has typically declined rather than increased. Most analysis of the process of economic development has hitherto focused on increasing the rate of growing. Here, we focus on understanding the forces making for a reduction in the rate of shrinking, drawing a distinction between proximate and ultimate factors. The main proximate factors considered are (1) structural change (2) technological change and (3) demographic change. We conclude with a consideration of institutional change as the key ultimate factor behind the reduction in shrinking.

The Vilfredo Pareto Research Seminar is our Departmental weekly seminar, featuring external speakers in all areas of economics. The organizer for this academic year is Prof.  Julia Cajal-Grossi.