As part of the Brown Bag Lunch series, the International Economics Department at the Graduate Institute is pleased to invite you to a public talk given by Rahul Mehrotra, Research Follow at the Graduate Institute. He will present the research work he conducted together with Professor Lore Vandewalle, entitled
Conflict and Poverty Traps: Evidence from a Secret War.

Abstract: Does violent conflict result in persistent poverty traps? Neoclassical growth theory and existing empirical evidence indicate convergence between war-torn and unaffected regions due to factor mobility driven by relatively higher marginal returns. This paper provides novel and contrary evidence from Lao People's Democratic Republic where unexploded ordnance (UXO) contamination from the Second Indochina War (1964-73) continues to contaminate significant land area. We exploit exogenous variation in conflict characteristics to address endogeneity concerns regarding village-level UXO contamination and aerial bombing intensity, respectively. Our results show that UXO contamination and aerial bombing intensity exacerbate poverty levels several decades after the conflict. This impact is driven by theoretically motivated mechanisms, including persistent reductions in physical capital, technology adoption and human capital formation. This paper re-evaluates conventional wisdom in the conflict and poverty traps literature, while highlighting the importance of banning cluster munitions and prioritizing UXO clearance programs in conflict zones.