This seminar is cancelled

Abstract 

We study how variations in agricultural productivity affect deforestation in the tropics. The relationship is theoretically ambiguous and may depend on local economic and institutional conditions. We use deforestation data covering all tropical countries at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude over the period 2000-2018. We combine information on soil characteristics and global fertilizer price changes to identify local exogenous changes in agricultural productivity. We find that deforestation is positively associated with changes in agricultural productivity in the tropics: an increase of one standard deviation in agricultural productivity leads to a 60% increase in deforestation. However, there is heterogeneity: the association is negative in the poorest countries and in areas where institutions are weakest.

This is a joint with Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier and Antoine Leblois.